N-400 Final-Stage Wait Jumps 16 Days in One Week, Registering as a 4.59-Sigma Outlier
This week's 56-day median is the largest single-week move in the 12-week window, arriving from a flat baseline with no seasonal cover. The cause is not yet apparent in the data.
The N-400 final-stage wait rose to 56 days this week, up 16 days from 40 days last week, a +38.8% move that registers as a 4.59-sigma outlier against the prior 12-week baseline. The 12-week trailing average sits at 42 days, and the same week last year also came in at 42 days, so neither seasonal patterns nor a pre-existing upward trend provide an obvious explanation. With 1,054 cases approved this week, the sample is large enough to rule out thin-week noise as the primary driver. What caused the jump remains unknown from the current data.
- The N-400 final-stage median jumped 16 days in a single week, from 40 days to 56 days, the largest one-week move in the 12-week window.
- The outlier flag fired at z = 4.59, more than twice the 2.0 threshold that signals a statistically significant departure from the recent trend.
- The spike arrives from a flat baseline: the 8-week slope is -0.1 days per week with an R² of 0.00, meaning there was no pre-existing directional trend.
- Cases that received an RFE (Request for Evidence) cleared with a median of 34 days this week, 9 days faster than non-RFE cases at 43 days.
- The 4-week mechanical forecast projects a wide band of ~38 to 74 days each week, reflecting the near-zero R² and high week-to-week variability in the underlying trend.
56 days: the biggest single-week jump in three months
The N-400 final-stage wait rose from 40 days last week to 56 days this week, a +16-day move (+38.8%) that is the largest single-week jump in the 12-week window. The 12-week trailing average is 42 days, and the same week last year came in at 42 days, so there is no seasonal cover for the reading. An outlier flag fired at z = 4.59, meaning this week's median sits 4.59 standard deviations above the recent trend line, far above the 2.0 threshold that defines a statistically significant departure. For context: a z-score of 2.0 would already place a reading in the outermost 5% of expected variation; 4.59 is substantially further out. With 1,054 cases approved this week, the sample is large enough that small-sample noise is an unlikely primary explanation. The data brief does not tell us why the median moved this sharply.
At 4.59 sigma above the recent trend, this week's reading is the sharpest one-week departure the 12-week window contains, yet the baseline it departs from was essentially flat.
A flat baseline makes the spike harder to explain away
From W25 through W35, N-400 final-stage medians moved between 31 days (W32) and 50 days (W30), with the 8-week slope sitting at -0.1 days per week and an R² of 0.00. Those two figures together indicate essentially no directional trend over the period. The interquartile range (the spread between the 25th percentile, p25, and the 75th percentile, p75) widened noticeably from W31 onward, with the p75 reaching 81 days in W34, suggesting growing case-level variability even before this week's reading. The current jump to 56 days appears to arrive from a stable, noisy baseline rather than continuing any pre-existing upward move.
In the seven weeks where last-year comparison data is available (W29 through W35), the current-year median tracked closely to the prior year, with the current year ranging from 1 day below to 8 days above the same-week 2025 figure. This week's 56-day reading sits 14 days above the same-week-last-year figure of 42 days, a divergence larger than any in those prior seven weeks. Whether that gap narrows next week or persists is the key question the coming data will answer.
Preview
Unlock the full analysis for your case
See the complete outlook, a personalised lookup against this week's cohort, and your estimated approval window.
- Full premium analysis: outlook, what it means for you, and implications.
- Personalised case lookup against this week's cohort, with percentile and remaining days.
- Estimated approval window mapped to your filing date.
Cancel anytime. Plans from $5.99/month.