I-130 Final-Stage Waits Are 37 Days Shorter Than a Year Ago, but Slowly Climbing

The I-130 final-stage median for the week of August 31 was 46 days, compared with 83 days during the same week in 2025. That 44% gap is the most applicant-relevant number in this issue: it means the typical case that recently cleared waited roughly 37 fewer days from its last reported status to approval than a comparable case a year ago. The 12-week range runs from 25 days (week of June 29) to 76 days (week of June 15), placing this week's 46-day reading near the middle of recent experience rather than at either boundary.

The 12-week trailing average also sits at 46 days, which means this week's reading is essentially in line with the recent pace rather than a fresh low or high. The low-water mark of 25 days (June 29) and the prior high of 76 days (June 15) bookend a wide range, reflecting real week-to-week variability. Whether that variability has a directional tilt is the subject of the next section.

A slope of +1.4 days per week over the past 8 weeks exceeds the publication's ±0.5 threshold for a meaningful signal, meaning the upward direction is worth monitoring. However, the R² of 0.37 falls well below the 0.70 threshold for high confidence, so the direction is suggested rather than confirmed by the data. If the pace continues linearly, the median could approach 52 days by late September, though that projection is mechanical and does not account for policy shifts or operational changes. The week-to-week scatter is wide enough that any given week could land substantially above or below.

This week, cases that had received and responded to an RFE (Request for Evidence, USCIS's standard follow-up letter asking for missing documents) cleared in a median of 18 days, compared with 46 days for cases with no RFE. Under normal conditions the relationship runs in the opposite direction: RFE'd cases take longer because an adjudicator must review the additional documentation after it arrives. The rfe_fast anomaly flag signals that the 18-day reading is statistically unusual relative to the prior 8-week baseline. An RFE is not a denial signal; the large majority of cases that receive one are ultimately approved.

A single-week rfe_fast reading often reflects a group of similar cases that were filed close together in time, all clearing at once rather than a sustained change in adjudicator throughput. The data brief does not identify which mechanism is at work here. Applicants who have recently responded to an RFE should not read a single week's unusual reading as a reliable signal of how long their own wait will be.

RFE cases moved faster than non-RFE cases this week, a reading uncommon enough to flag but too fresh to explain with confidence.